The WA sheep industry: what the data and sentiment tells us

As part of the WA Roadmap to 2028, the Strategic Steering Group commissioned a report to establish as baseline of the current state of the industry.

Called “Situation analysis of the Western Australian sheep industry”, the report was finished in November and used the best available data to June 2025.

Across the next few newsletters, there will be snapshots and summaries from the report.

More recently, stakeholder discussions highlighted the more positive sentiment recorded in the October 2025 MLA/AWI Sheep Producer Intentions Survey. This survey found sentiment among WA sheepmeat producers had strengthened considerably, with a net sentiment of +53, although still lagging the national sheepmeat sector average of +78.

This was reinforced at a December Strategic Steering Group wool meeting where market intelligence, from a recent trip to China, showed buyers closely following contracted global wool stocks and Australia’s falling wool clip. The meeting also heard there’s strong demand for a sustainable supply of Australian wool - providing attendees confidence to encourage higher wool production in WA. 

A WA sheep industry in transition - insights from the report

Western Australia’s sheep industry is navigating one of the most significant structural transitions in its history. Long-term shifts in land use, flock composition and market access have converged with short-term seasonal and policy pressures, forcing producers and the broader supply chain to reassess the key role of sheep within WA farming systems.

At the centre of this transition is a sharp contraction in flock numbers. After

hovering around 14 million head until 2019, WA’s sheep flock has declined rapidly. Earlier in 2025 the WA Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD) estimated numbers would fall to between 8.6 and 9 million head by June 2025 before a period of rebuild - the lowest level in more than 70 years.

Elevated turn-off, including historically high slaughter rates, dry seasonal conditions and prolonged uncertainty surrounding the legislated phase-out of live sheep exports by sea from May 2028 accelerated this decline earlier in the year. The WA Strategic Steering Group notes that composition of the flock is also changing with the percentage of wethers declining from 32 per cent in 1990 to a low of 5 per cent in 2023. The proportion of ewes has stabilised at around 60 per cent, while the percentage of lambs has increased over time - demonstrating the increased reproduction potential of the WA flock.

Sheep and lamb turn-off data, in the report, highlights the scale of adjustment already underway. By mid-2025, this had declined 17 per cent year-on-year to 3.04 million head, according to DPIRD. Data to mid-2025 showed lamb slaughter remains the largest component of the state’s sheep industry turn-off, while adult sheep slaughter reached its highest level in a decade. Interstate transfers were down 76 per cent from January to June compared with the previous year, while live exports are now only a marginal share of total turn-off relative to historical volumes.

Wool production tells a similar story of contraction rather than collapse. WA remains Australia’s most Merino-dominant state, but the clip has fallen sharply as fewer sheep are shorn. Tight supply has helped stabilise prices, yet confidence remains fragile.

Despite the challenges, the industry is not without opportunity. Genetic improvement, containment feeding, improved reproductive management and stronger animal-welfare credentials provide clear pathways to lift productivity from a smaller base. More broadly, the current transition presents an opportunity to reposition WA sheep production around quality, traceability and system resilience rather than volume.