Question 1

What is the economic analysis actually for?

Accepted Answer

The economic analysis is part of the evidence base underpinning The Future Flock - A Ten-Year View 2027-2036; it is not the strategy itself and not a forecast. It was commissioned by Sheep Producers Australia to provide an independent, quantitative picture of what is possible for Australia's national sheep industry to 2035 under different levels of coordinated action. The analysis draws on data from ABARES, ABS, MLA, AWI, AWEX and a range of other published sources, all anchored to FY2025 benchmarks. The scenarios show the scale of the prize and the levers that move it. Target-setting belongs to industry and government, not to an economic model.

Question 2

Haven't strong prices driven the recent industry rebound, rather than any strategy work?

Accepted Answer

Yes, and the report is explicit on this point. Recent record lamb and sheep revenues in 2025 and the Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) reaching its highest level in six years in March 2026 reflect market conditions, not strategy documents. The analysis does not claim otherwise. What it addresses is how the industry positions itself to capture the next price peak and avoid giving value away on the downswing. Markets are cyclical. The scenarios quantify what coordinated structural improvement adds on top of the market cycle, rather than instead of it.

Question 3

Aren't the headline figures just a best-case scenario?

Accepted Answer

The Integrated Industry and Scale figures represent the most ambitious of the three scenarios by design, and they are presented as what coordinated action could unlock, not a forecast. Under this scenario, the national flock is held stable at approximately 68.8 million head while total GVA rises approximately 19 per cent above the Economic Baseline by 2035, with producer cash flow for sheep enterprises improving by up to 73 per cent. These outcomes are achievable if adoption, investment, market access and coordination conditions align.

Question 4

Does the report want producers to move away from Merinos?

Accepted Answer

No. The economic upside in the analysis is built on the strengths of the existing national flock rather than away from it. Australia's Merino base, which accounts for approximately 64 per cent of the breeding ewe base nationally, provides a strong dual-purpose platform for both wool and meat value capture, and the gains modelled in the upside scenarios are built on improving the performance of that base through better genetics, reproduction, finishing systems and market access. The shift toward certified responsible wool production modelled in the scenarios is about capturing price premiums available within the current flock, not about breed change.

Question 5

Aren't the scenario pathways top-down changes being imposed on producers?

Accepted Answer

No. Every pathway in the report represents choices available to industry participants, none of which are imposed from above. The farm-level financial analysis exists precisely so producers can see the dollar effect at their own gate before deciding whether a practice change or investment makes commercial sense for their enterprise. The strongest results in the modelling come from producers acting in their own commercial interest, with coordination along the supply chain amplifying the returns from those individual choices. The analysis is a quantitative tool for better-informed decisions, not a prescription.

Question 6

Where do the model figures come from and how reliable are they?

Accepted Answer

The Future Flock model is a national sheep population and value chain simulation, projecting flock dynamics and economic outcomes across ABARES regions to 2035. It is calibrated to FY2025 benchmarks anchored to ABARES, ABS, MLA and AWI published data. The model operates across two layers; a biological population layer tracking flock size and composition, and an economic layer translating production into GVA, employment and producer financial outcomes. All model outputs are scenario-based and should not be interpreted as forecasts. The assumptions underpinning each scenario and sensitivity were reviewed by the Economic Working Group and National Advisory Panel through the project process.

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